Carlos Alcaraz is on course to obliterate Novak Djokovic’s prize money record and could earn over $150m more than the Serbian great.
Djokovic is the all-time top earner in men’s tennis history, with his 22 years on the ATP Tour so far having earned him $190,194,053, almost $60m more than second-place Rafa Nadal.
But, as inflation continues, the new generation are earning more and more, with the likes of Alexander Zverev and Daniil Medvedev ahead of all-time greats in the form of Pete Sampras.
However, there are two indications of who are set to surpass the record and then some, and in this piece, we will be focusing on the recently crowned 2025 US Open champion – Carlos Alcaraz.
How we worked out Carlos Alcaraz’s predicted earnings
While we are not (yet) able to predict the future with 100% accuracy, there are some clues we can take when it comes to predicting Alcaraz’s future.
If we look at his career so far, the Spaniard has earned $53,486,628 during a career which is coming up to the end of its sixth season on the tour.
In that time, he has won 23 ATP Tour singles titles, which means he earned approximately $2,325,505 per title. But of course, players come into their peaks later on, so if we take only since Alcaraz won his first Slam in 2022, that figure becomes $2,331,314 per title or $12,822,229 per season.
Now, with the past sorted, it is time to look forward, and there is a reasonable expectation that Alcaraz could play at this level for over a decade. If we look at the careers of Nadal, Federer, and Djokovic, all three were winning Slams at a consistent rate up until the age of 35, when there was an inevitable slowing down.
Of course, the reason behind that slowing down differs—from injury in the case of Nadal and Federer to the rise of two generational talents for Djokovic.
So if we use the Big Three as an example, we could expect Alcaraz to continue at a similar rate from now until he is 35, which would be the 2039 season.
Next, we come to inflation, which has a huge influence on tennis prize money. An example of this is Zverev, who has never won a Grand Slam, having earned $11,412,170 more than Sampras, who is fourth in the all-time Slam record.
Predicting inflation is tricky and something best left for people far smarter than us, so to give us a best guess, we have used the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), which provides inflation predictions in the UK. According to them, inflation is set to be around 2.1% in 2026 and at 2% for every year beyond that.
Again, it is worth stressing that these are predictions, and aspects like the war in Ukraine or the COVID pandemic have shown how hard it is to predict these things. But, without a crystal ball, we can use the OBR’s data to guide us.
How much will Carlos Alcaraz earn in his entire career?
Using all that data and making assumptions that Alcaraz’s career will continue as it is now and he will be saved from a major injury or a drop in form, if he played until the 2042 season, when he would be 38, by the end of his career he would have earned $312,933,532.
That figure would see him easily beat Djokovic and, as things stand, it is $122,739,479 more than the Serbian.
His most profitable years would come towards the end of his career, when inflation means he could be earning on average $16m per season.
Of course, this number could go up or down depending on Alcaraz’s form, but even if there was a sharp drop-off, it is hard to see how he does not overtake all of the Big Three at some point.
When will Carlos Alcaraz overtake each of the Big Three?
As to when he overtakes each player, that can also be predicted.
Roger Federer ended his career on a total of $130,594,339, which, by our calculations, Alcaraz could reach towards the end of the 2031 season when he would be just 27 years old.
Next would be Nadal, who ended on $134,946,100. By our calculations, Alcaraz will also overtake his fellow Spaniard in 2031 and is estimated to end that year on $135,586,261.
Djokovic, though, would take a few more years. The Serbian’s current tally of $190,194,053 would be reached by Alcaraz midway through the 2035 season, when he would be 31 years old.
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There are a number of things going in Alcaraz’s favour when it comes to catching the impressive record of the Big Three, and it would take quite the drop-off for him to fail to match their tallies.
For starters, he has time on his side at 22, and the US Open win was his sixth Slam. Federer, at the age of 23, had only won three major Slams, and only Nadal and Bjorn Borg had six titles before the age of 23.
Alcaraz also has inflation on his side, as every title he wins is more valuable financially than the Big Three’s were.
There is also the two-horse race factor, in that while Djokovic, Nadal, and Federer were taking titles off each other, at the moment it looks like Sinner and Alcaraz will be sharing the Slams for years to come.
All of this suggests that Alcaraz looks a sure bet to surpass the Big Three in terms of prize money, the only question is: will he also beat his Italian rival?
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