Elena Rybakina ended her Asian swing struggles with an impressive run to the title in Ningbo, and the Kazakh now has her sights firmly set on returning to the WTA Finals.
Having beaten Ekaterina Alexandrova to pick up the 10th title of her career — and second of 2025 — at the Ningbo Open, world No 7 Rybakina boosted her chances of a third appearance at the year-end championships, having previously qualified in 2023 and 2024.
However, while Kazakh has her fate in her own hands, she still needs to overtake Mirra Andreeva in the WTA Race to Riyadh, and that may be easier said than done, with Rybakina handed a tough draw at the Pan Pacific Open.
As it stands
Seven of the eight spots at the WTA Finals in Riyadh have now been secured, with Jasmine Paolini qualifying last week to join Aryna Sabalenka, Iga Swiatek, Coco Gauff, Amanda Anisimova, Jessica Pegula, and Madison Keys in the field.
That means it is a straight shootout between Rybakina and Andreeva for the final spot, with no other player in contention for the eighth and final position.
Champion at WTA 1000 events in Dubai and Indian Wells this season, teen star Andreeva holds 4,319 points for the season, with her chances of qualifying faltering during what was a difficult hard-court summer and Asian swing.
Meanwhile, having won WTA 500 titles in Strasbourg and Ningbo this year, Rybakina holds 4,305 points after a topsy-turvy season for the former world No 3 — just 14 points behind Andreeva.
This is the final week that contributes to WTA Finals qualification, and, with her rival not in action, Rybakina has the chance to stamp her authority and secure her place in Tokyo this week.
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What Rybakina needs to do
With Paolini having withdrawn from the WTA 500 event in Tokyo, presumably due to her own WTA Finals qualification, Rybakina is now the top seed at the Pan Pacific Open.
You would assume that makes life straightforward for her in terms of qualifying for the year-end championships in Riyadh, and that is the case from a points perspective.
The Kazakh receives a round-one bye at the tournament and, while 100 points for reaching the quarter-final would not factor into her race standings, her points from reaching the semi-final would.
Should Rybakina reach the last four, she would earn 200 ranking points — and secure her WTA Finals qualification.
However, she will have to beat two players she has lost to in 2025 to do just that, with her draw in Tokyo an incredibly tough one.
Rybakina will start her campaign with a round-two match against Leylah Fernandez, who also comes into this event off the back of a title — having triumphed in Osaka this weekend.
The Canadian beat Maria Sakkari in round one of Tokyo and has won two of her three meetings against Rybakina, including a Citi D.C Open semi-final win back in July.
If Rybakina were to beat Fernandez, she would then face either Victoria Mboko or Eva Lys in the quarter-finals, two players she has both tasted defeat two in recent months.
The former Wimbledon champion was stunned by Mboko in the Canadian Open semi-finals this summer, with the teen star having won her first match since Montreal in the opening round of Tokyo.
Meanwhile, the much-improved Lys shocked Rybakina in the third round of the China Open just a few weeks back.
WTA Finals Race (as of October 21, 2025)
1) Aryna Sabalenka, 9,990 – Q
2) Iga Swiatek, 8,303 – Q
3) Coco Gauff, 6,573 – Q
4) Amanda Anisimova, 5,897 – Q
5) Jessica Pegula, 5,183 – Q
6) Madison Keys, 4,395 – Q
7) Jasmine Paolini, 4,325 – Q
8) Mirra Andreeva, 4,319
Cutoff
9) Elena Rybakina, 4,305
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The post Elena Rybakina vs Mirra Andreeva: Kazakh’s ‘tough’ pathway to WTA Finals qualification revealed appeared first on Tennis365.