The Miami Open is underway – and the US has three leading contenders to lift the women’s singles title in 2025.
Coco Gauff, Jessica Pegula, and Madison Keys are all among the favourites to lift the prestigious WTA 1000 title and, between the three, there may be more at stake than just silverware.
An intriguing battled to be the American No 1 is brewing, and action over the next nine days could prove significant in who holds the advantage over the coming months.
As it stands
The trio could not be any closer as things stand, with Gauff currently world No 3, Pegula currently world No 4, and Keys at her career-high of world No 5.
However, Gauff – the youngest of the three players – has a solid, if not unsurpassable, amount of points separating her from her two rivals.
The 21-year-old holds 6,063 ranking points, with Pegula on 5,361 and Keys on 5,004 points as of Monday, March 17th.
But that is a smaller gap than it was heading into Indian Wells, with Gauff dropping 270 points after her fourth-round run fell short of her semi-final showing at Tennis Paradise in 2024.
Pegula gained 110 points thanks to her run to the fourth round, while Keys earned an impressive extra 325 points thanks to her semi-final run.
Miami Open points
This week’s Miami Open sees all three women defend a handful of points, with world No 4 Pegula facing slightly more pressure than her compatriots.
The 2024 US Open runner-up was a quarter-finalist last year, losing to Ekaterina Alexandrova, and has 215 ranking points in Miami to her name.
With 10 points already defended thanks to an opening-round bye – which benefits all seeds – Pegula currently drops 205 points in the WTA Live Rankings, falling to 5,156.
Gauff and Keys were both beaten in round four in 2024, losing to by Caroline Garcia and Elena Rybakina, respectively.
With 10 points also successfully defended thanks to their byes, Gauff and Keys currently drop 110 points in the WTA Live Rankings.
Gauff drops to 5,953, while Keys drops to 4,894.
Who has the advantage in Miami?
Gauff is in the driver’s seat as things stand, and it is unlikely that she will be usurped as the American No 1 following action at the Miami Open.
Keys can move to a maximum of 5,884 points with the title – meaning she cannot overtake the world No 3 in any circumstance, while Pegula would hold 6,146 points should she triumph.
That could be enough for her to regain her position as the US No 1, though she would also need Gauff to fail to make it to the quarter-finals.
However, Pegula could also be overtaken by Keys in the rankings, and knocked back down to world No 5 – or lower, depending on other player results.
If Keys were to win the title, there would be no way for Pegula to match her compatriot’s ranking points; with the two on the same side of the draw, they could potentially meet in the semi-final.
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Miami draw
Fourth seed Pegula and fifth seed Keys could be in line for a semi-final meeting, though there a plenty of obstacles for them both to pass before a potential meeting.
Most notably, Keys is projected to face second seed and 2022 champion Iga Swiatek in the last eight – though did beat the Pole on her way to the Australian Open title in January.
Should she reach the quarter-final, Pegula could face another American in the form of eighth seed Emma Navarro – or Indian Wells champion Mirra Andreeva.
Meanwhile, third seed Gauff is in the top half of the draw and is projected to face a semi-final against world No 1 and top seed Aryna Sabalenka.
Gauff’s campaign will start against Sofia Kenin on Thursday and she could then face 28th seed Maria Sakkari – who she beat in Indian Wells – in round three.
Looking ahead
Following the conclusion of the Miami Open, the clay-court swing gets underway – where Pegula could strike.
The world No 4 reached the semi-final of the Charleston Open a year ago – earning 195 points – though missed the rest of the clay swing due to injury.
In comparison, Gauff has French Open and Italian Open semi-final points to defend, while Keys has the WTA 500 Strasbourg Open title and Madrid Open semi-final points on her ranking.
That could allow Pegula to move back to US No 1 ahead of Gauff and distance herself from Keys, though she then faces a crunch summer where she faces rankings pressure.
The 31-year-old is a defending champion at the WTA 500 Berlin Open and WTA 1000 Canadian Open, before defending Cincinnati Open and US Open runner-up points.
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