Main draw action at the 2025 Shanghai Masters gets underway on Wednesday October 1, but who will lift the title at the biggest men’s tournament staged in Asia?
The Masters 1000 tournament at the Forest Sports City Arena features 96 main draw players, with the 32 seeds receiving a first round bye. The final will be played on October 12.
Here, we make our predictions for the Shanghai Masters.
First quarter
Projected QF: Carlos Alcaraz (1) vs Alex de Minaur (7)
Carlos Alcaraz has reached his ninth consecutive final at the Japan Open and he will aim to win a maiden title in Shanghai, where he is yet to progress beyond the quarter-finals.
The world No 1’s projected route to the quarter-finals is: 2R — Learner Tien/Miomir Kecmanovic, 3R — Cameron Norrie (30), 4R — Daniil Medvedev (16)/Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (18).
In the quarter-finals, he could face Alex de Minaur (7) or Karen Khachanov (9), with Stefanos Tsitsipas (24) and Brandon Nakashima (29) the other seeded players in the section. De Minaur’s recent form has been far more impressive than that of Khachanov.
Alcaraz is currently the man to beat in the men’s game, with the ankle issue that surfaced in his opening match in Tokyo the only slight concern.
Quarter-final prediction: Alcaraz d. de Minaur
Second quarter
Projected QF: Alexander Zverev (3) vs Lorenzo Musetti (8)
Alexander Zverev suffered a third round exit at the US Open and lost both of his matches at the Laver Cup, but he has got back to winning ways in Beijing.
The world No 3’s projected path to the last eight is: 2R – Mariano Navone/Qualifier, 3R – Alex Michelsen (28), 4R – Jiri Lehecka (15)/Denis Shapovalov (23). Michelsen, Lehecka and Shapovalov could all be dangerous opponents for Zverev given his unconvincing form.
It has been a great month for Felix Auger-Aliassime, who reached the 2025 US Open semi-finals before getting married in Marrakech.
The No 12 seed may face 17th seed Jakub Mensik in the third round and Lorenzo Musetti in the last 16. This could be a good opportunity for the Canadian, who upset Zverev during his US Open run.
Quarter-final prediction: Auger-Aliassime d. Zverev
ATP Tennis News
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Third quarter
Projected QF: Novak Djokovic (4) vs Ben Shelton (6)
Novak Djokovic, who is returning to action after his US Open semi-final run, has won a record four Shanghai titles and was a runner-up last year.
The 24-time major winner’s projected path to the quarter-finals is: 2R — Marin Cilic/Corentin Moutet, 3R — Frances Tiafoe (25), 4R — Andrey Rublev (13)/Flavio Cobolli (22).
Ben Shelton is playing for the first time since injury derailed his US Open campaign, and he could face Gabriel Diallo (31) in the third round and Casper Ruud (11) in the last 16.
A long-awaited rematch of Djokovic and Shelton’s spicy 2023 US Open semi-final would be intriguing. It is hard to look past the great Serbian here given his record at the event and questions over Shelton’s fitness.
Quarter-final prediction: Djokovic d. Shelton
Fourth quarter
Projected QF: Jannik Sinner (2) vs Taylor Fritz (5)
Jannik Sinner is the reigning champion in Shanghai and will arrive after a deep run at the China Open in Beijing.
The world No 2’s projected path to the quarter-finals is: 2R — Daniel Altmaier/Qualifier, 3R — Tallon Griekspoor (27), 4R — Alexander Bublik (14)/Tomas Machac (20).
Taylor Fritz is the favourite to meet Sinner in the last eight, but faces a tricky-looking draw: 2R – Fabian Marozsan/Stan Wawrinka, 3R — Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard (32), 4R — Holger Rune (10).
Sinner holds a 4-1 record against Fritz and won the pair’s three most recent meetings — which were all in 2024 — in straight sets. The Italian’s record on hard courts since late-2023 is outstanding.
Quarter-final prediction: Sinner d. Fritz
Semi-final and Final Predictions
Semi-finals:
Alcaraz d. Auger-Aliassime in 2 sets
Sinner d. Djokovic in 2 sets
Final:
Alcaraz d. Sinner in 3 sets
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