Iga Swiatek suffered a surprising fourth round defeat to Emma Navarro at the 2025 China Open, but what impact has it had on her battle with Aryna Sabalenka at the top of the WTA Rankings?
The Polish star was the favourite to win the WTA 1000 tournament in Beijing, but she committed a staggering 70 unforced errors compared to 35 winners in the 4-6, 6-4, 0-6 loss to world No 17 Navarro.
Swiatek is renowned for inflicting 6-0 sets on her opponents, but she was on the receiving end of a ‘bagel’ against the 24-year-old American as the deciding set slipped away in alarming fashion.
It was Swiatek’s first-ever defeat at the China Open, which she won in her only previous appearance in 2023.
Aryna Sabalenka, Swiatek’s chief rival and the world No 1, chose to skip the event in Beijing citing a minor injury after winning the 2025 US Open last month.
The absence of Sabalenka presented Swiatek with a big opportunity to significantly reduce the gap between the pair at the peak of the rankings. At the start of the China Open, Sabalenka sat on 11,225 points — 2,792 points clear of Swiatek.
Sabalenka’s absence at this year’s event means she will lose the 215 points she earned for reaching the quarter-finals in Beijing in 2024 when the rankings update, dropping her points total to 11,010 points.
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Swiatek, meanwhile, was not defending any points as she missed the 2024 China Open, giving her a great chance to boost her points tally.
By reaching the last 16, Swiatek collected 120 points, which has increased her total to 8,553 in the Live WTA Rankings. This leaves Swiatek 2,457 points adrift of Sabalenka.
While this means Swiatek will be 335 points closer to Sabalenka than she was before the event, she has missed the chance to make a more substantial gain on the Belarusian.
The six-time Grand Slam champion would have moved up to 8,648 points if she reached the quarter-finals, while she could have jumped to 9,433 points if she claimed the title — which would have left her 1,577 points behind Sabalenka.
The loss to Navarro is, therefore, a major blow to Swiatek’s hopes of usurping Sabalenka as world No 1 before the end of the 2025 campaign.
The 24-year-old will have another opportunity to make up ground at the WTA 1000 event in Wuhan, which will begin on October 6.
Sabalenka is the reigning champion in Wuhan, while Swiatek is defending no points as she did not play the event in 2024.
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