Why there is a clear favourite in WTA Finals battle between Mirra Andreeva and Elena Rybakina

Elena Rybakina’s title run at the Ningbo Open has seen her put one foot on the plane to Riyadh for the final spot at this year’s WTA Finals.

Former world No 3 Rybakina had been an outsider for the season-ending tournament for most of the year as she reached only one final, the Internationaux de Strasbourg in May, lingering outside the qualification places.

But the 2022 Wimbledon winner’s quarter-final at the Wuhan Open and Ningbo title, coupled with Mirra Andreeva’s loss of form in recent weeks, has resulted in a late surge for the former, and she is now the favourite to qualify.

After winning two WTA 1000 titles – Dubai Tennis Championships and Indian Wells Open – during the first three months of the season, Andreeva found herself among the top three in the WTA Finals Race To Riyadh.

She stayed in the top five for several months before slipping down with poor results during the Asia swing as she lost in the round of 16 at the China Open and her opening matches at the Wuhan Open and Ningbo Open.

With Jasmine Paolini reaching the quarter-final at this week’s WTA 500 event, she overtook Andreeva in the standings and secured her place at the WTA Finals – leaving Andreeva and Rybakina battling it out for the eighth and final spot.

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And Rybakina has gone on to win the Ningbo title, beating Ekaterina Alexandrova 3-6, 6-0, 6-2 to win the 10th title of her career, to move within striking distance of her young Russian rival

Why Rybakina Is The Favourite

Rybakina will play at the Pan Pacific Open in Tokyo this coming week, but she needs to reach the semi-final to overtake Andreeva.

“Thank you so much to my team for always pushing me to be better,” Rybakina said after the match.

“Especially at the end of the season, it’s not easy, but without you I would not be here. So, thanks again, and hopefully we can push a little more next week.”

That final push comes in Tokyo and there is good news for the Kazakh player as her big rival for qualification won’t play this week so her destiny is in her own hands: win two matches and qualify.

But she hasn’t received the easiest draw at the WTA 500 tournament as Rybakina – who has a first-round bye – will likely face Leylah Fernandez in the second round while she is projected to meet Victoria Mboko in the quarter-final.

Rybakina is looking to reach the WTA Finals for a third consecutive year, but she is yet to make it out of the group stage as she won only one round robin match in both 2023 and 2024.

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