Carlos Alcaraz enters the 2025 Paris Masters looking to win the title for the very first time, and he could also seal a major rankings milestone with a strong campaign.
It has undoubtedly been an exceptional year for the world No 1, who has dominated the men’s game with a staggering eight titles won — including French Open and US Open triumphs — and a further two finals to his name in 2025.
Alcaraz and key rival Jannik Sinner are well ahead of everyone in the ATP Rankings, but the Spaniard also has a notable lead over the Italian in the race to the year-end No 1 spot; here, we look at what he needs to do to end Sinner’s hopes in Paris this week.
As it stands
In the ATP Rankings as of Monday, Alcaraz holds 11,340 points, with Sinner 840 points behind on exactly 10,500 points following his victory at the Vienna Open.
Alcaraz has just 100 points to defend in Paris this week, while Sinner has no points to defend after missing the 2024 edition, meaning the world No 1 ranking is up for grabs this week.
However, while there is a thin margin between the two in the official ATP Rankings, there is a notable gap separating the two in the ATP Race to Turin.
The ATP Race to Turin monitors only points won in 2025, and, while Sinner has an impressive 9,010 points to his name after receiving a bye into second-round action in Paris, Alcaraz is comfortably ahead with 11,050 points ahead of his round two match on Tuesday.
Alcaraz is 2,040 points ahead of his rival for the season, and with both men competing for 2,500 points across the rest of the season — 1,000 points in Paris, and then 1,500 points at the ATP Finals — he needs just 451 more points to seal the year-end No 1 spot.
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An extra 451 points would place him on 11,501 points for the year, with Sinner able to achieve a maximum of 11,500 for the season with titles in both Paris and Turin.
The sheer volume of points on offer makes it likely that Alcaraz will seal the year-end No 1 ranking, especially considering that Sinner likely cannot afford to concede any further ground.
However, he can end the race in Paris this week, without the battle going down to the ATP Finals in Turin.
What does Alcaraz need in Paris?
With big points on offer at the finals Masters 1000 event of 2025, the equation is quite simple from Alcaraz’s perspective.
The 400 ranking points on offer for reaching the last four of the tournament would not be quite enough for the Spaniard to seal the year-end No 1 spot, though it would mean he needs just one round-robin win at the ATP Finals.
However, with 650 points on offer for reaching the final and 1,000 points for the title, a run to the final would guarantee Alcaraz the year-end No 1 ranking, regardless of how Sinner fares at the event.
A run to the final would place Alcaraz on 11,690 points for the season, ahead of the Italian’s potential tally of 11,500 points after hypothetical triumphs in both Paris and Turin.
If Alcaraz were to win the title, he would hold 12,040 points for the season, giving him not only the year-end No 1 spot, but a lead so commanding that it would likely see him remain at the top of the ATP Rankings throughout the opening months of 2026.
To have any realistic hope of claiming the year-end No 1 spot, Sinner likely needs to win the title in Paris — which would move him to 10,000 points for the year — and then win the ATP Finals, with Alcaraz falling early in Paris and then failing to make it out of his group in Turin.
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