The draw for the 2025 WTA Finals has been confirmed with Aryna Sabalenka heading Group Steffi Graf and Iga Swiatek headlining Group Serena Williams, but which group is the strongest on paper?
World No 1 Sabalenka will face defending champion Coco Gauff, world No 5 Jessica Pegula and the world No 8 Jasmine Paolini in her three round-robin matches while Swiatek takes on world No 4 Amanada Anisimova, No 6 Elena Rybakina and No 7 Madison Keys.
Group Steffi Graf has two Grand Slam winners in four-time major winner Sabalenka and two-time Slam champion Gauff while Swiatek (six Grand Slams), Rybakina (one) and Keys (one) are the Slam winners in Group Serena Williams.
In terms of favourites, Sabalenka and Anisimova have been backed by many tennis pundits to win the season-ending tournament in Riyadh, but you can never discount Swiatek and Gauff while the other challengers can beat any of their rivals on their day.
Group Steffi Graf
Reigning US Open champion Sabalenka is no doubt the player to beat as she is the top seed and has been the standout player on the WTA Tour in 2025 as she has reached the most finals (eight) and won the most titles (four).
Known for her power hitting, Sabalenka finds herself in a group of players who are more known for digging in and playing extended rallies, something that the world No 1 is usually keen to avoid.
Gauff, Pegula and Paolini are crafty players who usually make you play an extra shot while Sabalenka is someone who goes for her shots and likes to end a point as quickly as possible.
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The Belarusian leads the head-to-head 15-12 against her group rivals, but she does have a losing record against Gauff (5-6) while she leads Pegula 8-3 and Paolini 5-2 although she has lost her most recent match against Pegula in the semi-final of the Wuhan Open.
Gauff also won her last encounter against Sabalenka in the French Open final while the US Open winner has won three in a row against Paolini.
Paolini and Gauff are 3-3 in their head-to-head rivalry, Pegula leads Gauff 4-3 while the American is 5-0 against Paolini.
Group Serena Williams
Wimbledon champion Swiatek finds herself in the group of ball bashers with Anisimova, Rybakina and Keys all known for their raw power, something that the Pole has struggled with in the past.
Swiatek is 12-7 against her WTA Finals round-robin rivals as she is 1-1 with Anisimova, 6-4 against Rybakina and 5-2 against Keys. The Pole, of course, double bagelled Anisimova in the Wimbledon final before the American exacted revenge in the US Open quarter-final.
Rybakina was 4-2 against Swiatek at one point, but the Pole has now won four in a row while Keys claimed a big win over the world No 2 in the semi-final of the Australian Open.
Anisimova will face Rybakina and Keys for the first time on the WTA Tour during the group phase while Rybakina and Keys are tied 3-3 with each claiming a win in 2025.
There is no doubt that Swiatek plays better against counter-punchers, but she has managed to come to grips with the power hitters in the past few years.
Is one group easier than the other?
The short answer is no.
Sabalenka and Swiatek are favourites to top the groups after the round-robin matches, but they won’t have any easy matches.
But it has to be noted that in Group Serena Williams, Keys has not played since losing in the first round of the US Open at the end of August.
Anisimova recently skipped the Wuhan Open as she was also nursing an injury, but with her WTA Finals qualification already secured, she perhaps opted to just take an extended break before travelling to Saudi Arabia.
Swiatek won the Korea Open, lost in the round of 16 in the China Open and the quarter-final in Wuhan.
In Group Steffi Graf, Gauff won the Wuhan Open, Pegula reached the final while Paolini reached the semi-final of the Ningbo Open.
Sabalenka has played only one tournament since winning the US Open and that was in Wuhan where she lost in the semi-finals.
The post WTA Finals groups assessed: Aryna Sabalenka against counter-punchers and Iga Swiatek against big hitters appeared first on Tennis365.
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