The final stage of round-robin matches is set to get underway at the WTA Finals, and there is plenty to play for in Riyadh.
While the permutations for the final round of action in Group Serena Williams are incredibly straightforward, it is a different story in Group Steffi Graf; eighth seed Jasmine Paolini cannot progress, but top seed Aryna Sabalenka, third seed Coco Gauff, and fifth seed Jessica Pegula all have plenty to play for on Thursday.
The final day of round-robin action pits Pegula against Paolini, before Sabalenka — the only unbeaten player in the group so far — takes on Gauff, with plenty of permutations to assess.
What does Sabalenka need?
Despite two wins from two, Sabalenka’s progression from Group Steffi Graf is not yet secure.
However, the world No 1 can ensure she qualifies should she beat Gauff on Thursday, a result that would see her top the group and face the runner-up from Group Serena Williams in the last four.
It is also still possible for the Belarusian to progress, even if she does taste defeat.
Should she fall to Gauff and Paolini beats Pegula, she will qualify in second place, with Gauff taking first spot due to her win in their respective match.
However, should she lose to Gauff and Pegula beats Paolini, a complicated scenario involving games and sets won could then come into play.
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If all three players hold six points, head-to-head cannot be used as the tiebreaker, meaning the two players with the highest percentage of sets won will progress.
If two — or all three — players still can’t be split, it will come down to games won.
If Sabalenka loses in straight sets and Pegula beats Paolini in straight sets, she will exit the tournament.
However, if she falls to Gauff in three sets and Pegula wins in straights, it will then come down to games won.
If Paolini manages to take a set off Pegula, Sabalenka’s progression is assured — it will only be whether she finishes first or second that is at stake.
What does Gauff need?
After a disappointing first match against Pegula, Gauff bounced back with a strong win against Paolini on Thursday to keep her hopes alive.
Gauff will now face Sabalenka for the first time since the French Open final, and a win will be invaluable to her chances.
If she tastes defeat, the only way she can qualify is if Paolini beats Pegula in straight sets, or hope that she loses in three sets and Paolini beats Pegula in three sets.
Should she beat Sabalenka, she would be guaranteed progression if that win comes in straight sets.
If she was to beat Sabalenka in three sets, that would be enough to guarantee progression unless Pegula wins in straight sets, in which case she, Pegula, and Sabalenka would be split by games won.
What does Pegula need?
Pegula’s best hope of qualifying on Thursday is beating Paolini, ideally in straight sets.
Should she beat the Italian in either straight sets or three sets, she will qualify in second place if Sabalenka then beats Gauff.
If she wins in straight sets and Gauff wins in straight sets, she will again qualify in second place.
However, if she wins in straight sets and Gauff wins in three sets, she, Gauff, and Sabalenka will be split by games won.
If Pegula beats Paolini in three sets, she will be out if Gauff then beats Sabalenka in any scoreline — highlighting the importance of a straight-set win for the fifth seed.
Should Pegula lose in straight sets to Paolini, there is no mathematical chance she can qualify.
However, if she were to lose in three sets, she could still qualify if Sabalenka then beats Gauff in straight sets.
Full qualifying scenarios
WTA Finals qualifying scenarios.
Order of Play (Thursday, November 6)
n/b 14:00 (local time): (5) Jessica Pegula vs (8) Jasmine Paolini
Followed by: (1) Aryna Sabalenka vs (3) Coco Gauff
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