ATP Finals: Does Carlos Alcaraz or Jannik Sinner have the best group-stage draw?

The draw for the ATP Finals is out, with Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner leading the ‘Elite 8’ in Turin.

While there are still a handful of draw variables at the year-end championships, both men will already be preparing for their three round-robin matches — but who will face the tougher time of things?

Here, we analyse whether Alcaraz or Sinner will be more satisfied with their draw.

Who is in Carlos Alcaraz’s group?

Expected opponents: (4) Novak Djokovic, (6) Taylor Fritz, (7) Alex de Minaur

Alcaraz was knocked out of the ATP Finals at the round-robin stage in 2024 after recording just one win, and will look to bounce back in 2025.

On paper, the eye-catching match-up for the top seed is a clash against seven-time champion and fourth seed Djokovic — assuming the Serbian plays.

Djokovic holds a 5-4 lead in their head-to-head and beat Alcaraz convincingly when they met in the semi-final of this event in 2023.

However, Alcaraz has been in much more consistent form in 2025 and was a convincing winner when the two met in the semi-final of the US Open this September.

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Sixth seed Fritz was the runner-up at this tournament last year and has strong consistency indoors, even beating the Spaniard at the Laver Cup this year.

But it was Alcaraz who had previously picked up a Laver Cup win over the American in 2024, and a win in the Japan Open final this September saw him move 4-1 up in their head-to-head.

Fritz is certainly comfortable in Turin — Sinner was the only player to beat him last year — but Alcaraz will still enter this contest as the favourite.

He will also enter as the favourite against the seventh seed de Minaur, who will be looking for his first ATP Finals match wins after a 0-3 record on debut in 2024.

Alcaraz holds a perfect 4-0 record against the Australian, though he was pushed to three sets when they met in the indoor Rotterdam Open final this February.

Who is in Jannik Sinner’s group?

Expected opponents: (3) Alexander Zverev, (5) Ben Shelton, (8) Felix Auger-Aliassime OR Lorenzo Musetti

Entering as the defending champion, home favourite and second seed Sinner only has two confirmed opponents so far — with Musetti and Auger-Aliassime still battling for the final spot.

What we do know is that the highest seed in this group behind him is third seed Zverev, an opponent he has already beaten twice this indoor season.

The two contested an incredibly competitive final in Vienna, though it was the Italian who prevailed in the Austrian capital before needing just 61 minutes to seal a 6-0, 6-1 win over Zverev in the Paris Masters semi-finals.

Zverev was evidently not at full fitness in that match, but the German has now lost four straight matches to Sinner, including the Australian Open final in January.

Sinner now leads that head-to-head 5-4 after being 1-4 down, though his head-to-head over fifth seed Shelton is even more emphatic.

The Italian lost his first meeting against Shelton at the 2023 Shanghai Masters, but has won seven meetings since then — winning 17 straight sets against the American.

Shelton struggles to challenge Sinner on return, and the Italian’s confident 6-3, 6-3 win in Paris last week suggests he will be the overwhelming favourite in this match-up.

He will also be the heavy favourite against Auger-Aliassime or Musetti, regardless of who he faces.

Sinner has an unblemished 3-0 record against compatriot Musetti, most recently meeting at the US Open, while he has beaten Auger-Aliassime in all three of their 2025 clashes — including the Paris final.

Who has the better group?

Fundamentally, both Alcaraz and Sinner will be happy with their groups in Turin, and remain heavy favourites to meet in the final.

However, it will perhaps be Sinner who is the most satisfied.

The three match-ups he faces in Turin — whether it’s Musetti or Auger-Aliassime — have all swung heavily in his favour in recent months, particularly against both Shelton and Zverev.

Unbeaten at the event twelve months ago, the Italian looks in line for another strong campaign.

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