The draw is out for the 2026 Australian Open, but who will lift the men’s singles title at the year’s first Grand Slam in Melbourne?
Main draw action at the hard-court major at Melbourne Park will begin on Sunday 18 January, and the men’s singles final will be played on Sunday 1 February.
Jack Draper and Holger Rune, both of whom would have been seeded, have withdrawn. Arthur Fils, Emil Ruusuvuori and Thanasi Kokkinakis have also pulled out.
Here, we make our predictions for the Australian Open men’s singles draw.
First quarter
Projected QF: Carlos Alcaraz (1) vs Alex de Minaur (6)
Six-time Grand Slam champion Carlos Alcaraz is chasing his maiden title at the Australian Open, which would see him become the youngest man to win each of the four majors in the Open Era.
The world No 1 has a favourable-looking path to the quarter-finals: 1R – Adam Walton, 2R – Yannick Hanfmann, 3R – Corentin Moutet (No 32), 4R – Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (No 14) or Tommy Paul (No 19).
Alex de Minaur reached the quarter-finals at his home major for the first time last year, and the No 6 seed is the favourite to meet Alcaraz in the last eight.
The Aussie does not have an easy draw, with Matteo Berrettini in the first round, 29th seed Frances Tiafoe his projected third round opponent, and 10th seed Alexander Bublik and 20th seed Flavio Cobolli his potential fourth round opponents. It is hard, though, to look past de Minaur’s consistency.
Quarter-final prediction: Alcaraz defeats de Minaur
Second quarter
Projected QF: Alexander Zverev (3) vs Felix Auger-Aliassime (7)
Alexander Zverev was a runner-up to Jannik Sinner at the 2025 Australian Open, and the German faces a tricky opener against 41st-ranked Gabriel Diallo.
That aside, it is not a bad draw for the No 3 seed, who could meet Alexei Popyrin in the second round, 26th seed Cameron Norrie in the third round, and 13th seed Andrey Rublev in the fourth round.
Zverev’s projected quarter-final opponent is No 7 seed Felix Auger-Aliassime, an Australian Open quarter-finalist in 2022 and a two-time US Open semi-finalist.
Auger-Aliassime was superb in the latter part of 2025, but he could face dangerous 25th seed Learner Tien in the third round and a resurgent Daniil Medvedev in the last 16.
Medvedev, the 11th seed, holds a 7-2 record against Auger-Aliassime, while he has won 13 of his last 16 matches with potential quarter-final opponent Zverev.
The 2021 US Open winner started 2026 by winning the Brisbane International, and as a three-time Australian Open finalist, he has proven he can go very deep here.
Quarter-final prediction: Medvedev defeats Zverev
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Third quarter
Projected QF: Lorenzo Musetti (5) vs Novak Djokovic (4)
Novak Djokovic, the No 4 seed, will aim to win a record-extending 11th Australian Open crown, and his first since 2023.
The 38-year-old Serbian’s early path looks manageable: 1R – Pedro Martinez, 2R – Terence Atmane, 3R – Brandon Nakashima. He could then face a potentially tricky fourth round clash with 16th seed Jakub Mensik.
The 24-time Grand Slam winner could meet fifth seed Lorenzo Musetti or ninth seed Taylor Fritz in the quarter-finals. Musetti and Fritz are projected to meet in the last 16, but neither have an easy draw.
Musetti could play 31st seed Stefanos Tsitsipas, or dangerous unseeded stars Grigor Dimitrov or Tomas Machac, in the third round, while Fritz is projected to meet powerful 17th seed Jiri Lehecka at the same stage.
Fritz’s knee is a slight concern, but if healthy, he is the most reliable hard-court player in this section.
Quarter-final prediction: Djokovic defeats Fritz
Fourth quarter
Projected QF: Ben Shelton (8) vs Jannik Sinner (2)
Second seed Jannik Sinner is aiming to win a third consecutive Australian Open title and fifth Grand Slam overall.
Since becoming an elite player, Sinner has proven he simply does not lose early at majors.
It is hard to see Hugo Gaston (1R), James Duckworth (2R) or 15th seed Karen Khachanov (4R) posing many problems, although a third round match against 28th seed Joao Fonseca could be intriguing.
The Italian’s most likely quarter-final opponent is No 8 seed Ben Shelton — who he has beaten eight times in a row without losing a set, including three times at Slams.
Shelton has a tough first round match against Ugo Humbert, while he could play 12th seed Casper Ruud in the last 16.
Quarter-final prediction: Sinner defeats Shelton
Semi-final and Final Predictions
Semi-finals:
Alcaraz defeats Medvedev in 3 sets
Sinner defeats Djokovic in 3 sets
Final:
Sinner defeats Alcaraz in 5 sets
The post Jannik Sinner beats Carlos Alcaraz, Novak Djokovic & Daniil Medvedev go deep – our Australian Open predictions appeared first on Tennis365.
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