World No 1 Carlos Alcaraz could face the retiring Stan Wawrinka in his opening match at the Monte Carlo Masters while second seed Jannik Sinner faces a tricky path.
Defending champion Alcaraz – who is coming off a shock third-round exit from the Miami Open – has a bye into the second round and he will face the winner of the Wawrinka-Sebastian Baez match.
Alcaraz is yet to meet Wawrinka – who is retiring at the end of the year – in a top-level match while he has a 3-0 record against Baez.
Although both players are lowly ranked with three-time Grand Slam winner Wawrinka sitting at No 94 and Argentine Baez at No 50, they are formidable on clay as both have won seven titles on the surface.
Former No 3 Wawrinka, of course, won the 2014 Monte Carlo Masters and the 2015 French Open on clay while six of Baez’s seven titles have been on the red dirt.
If the seedings hold, then Alcaraz will face 14th seed Frances Tiafoe in the third round and eighth seed Alexander Bublik in the quarter-finals, although the latter will likely have to get past 11th seed Jir Lehecka in the third round.
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Alcaraz beat Lorenzo Musetti in the 2025 final, but there won’t be a repeat of that in the 2026 final as they are projected to meet in the semi-final.
Mussetti is seeded fourth and will face either Valentin Vacherot or Kamil Majchrzak in the second round while he could take on fifth seed Alex de Minaur – who opens his campaign against either Cameron Norrie or Miomir Kecmanovic – in the last eight.
World No 2 Sinner could replace Alcaraz at No 1 in the ATP Rankings if he outperforms the Spaniard, but he has a difficult path.
The four-time Grand Slam winner will take on either Ugo Humbert or rising French teenager Moise Kouame in the second round while he could face three-time Monte Carlo Masters champion Stefanos Tsitsipas or Francisco Cerundolo in the third round.
Sixth seed Felix Auger-Aliassime – who faces either Marin Cilic or a qualifier first up – is a potential quarter-final opponent for Sinner, but the Canadian will most likely have to get past ninth seed Casper Ruud in the third round.
Third seed Alexander Zverev headlines Section 3, but it is a real nightmare as it also contains seventh seed Daniil Medvedev and 13th seed Andrey Rublev.
Zverev will start against either Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard or a qualifier and could face 2023 Monte Carlo champion Rublev in the third round. If he gets past those players, then he is projected to meet Medvedev in the quarter-final.
Medvedev leads his rivalry with Zverev 14-8, having won 13 of the last 16 matches between the pair, although the German did win their most recent match at the 2025 Paris Masters.
But whoever comes through that section will likely face Sinner for a place in the final before a potential clash with Alcaraz on the Sunday.
Projected Quarter-Finals
Alcaraz v Bublik
Musetti v De Minaur
Medvedev v Zverev
Auger-Aliassime v Sinner
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