Carlos Alcaraz’s wrist injury could have a big impact on the race to be World No 1 with Jannik Sinner set to benefit from the Spaniard’s absence.
After he withdrew from Barcelona and was later spotted wearing a wrist splint, fears have grown over whether Alcaraz will be fit enough to defend his Roland Garros title having defeated Sinner in the final last year.
The man himself has suggested he will not risk it if it was to put his longer term career in jeopardy but an extended absence could have a monumental impact on the points difference between the two best male players on the tour.
As it stands, leader Sinner is on 13,350 points while Alcaraz is 390 behind on 12,960. One of the most influential matters in the race though is Sinner’s doping ban from last year which meant he has a lot to gain and almost nothing to lose in the clay swing.
Sinner will begin his quest for the Madrid Open on Friday where he will be looking to secure 1,000 points for winning his fifth consecutive Masters title.
After that, he could head to Rome where he has 650 points to defend but winning the tournament would grant him an additional 350.
Then in Paris, Sinner has 1,300 points to defend and 700 to gain so should he win the next three tournaments, the Italian would end the clay swing on 15,400.
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Meanwhile for Alcaraz, he is in the opposite position of having a lot to lose and little to gain. He did not play in the Madrid Open last year so does not at least lose points there but he could lose 1,000 in Rome and then 2,000 in Paris, putting him down on 9,960.
This means that Sinner, who was 550 behind Alcaraz come the end of the Australian Open, could start the grass season 5,440 ahead.
At the start of the clay swing, Alcaraz hinted that he knew he was up against it given Sinner’s previous ban and said him losing top spot was a matter of when not if.
“To be honest, I’m going to lose No 1 in the world [at some point]. I don’t know if it is going to be at this tournament or in the next one,” said Alcaraz. “I’m defending a bunch of points that are going to be really difficult to defend. Even if I defend them, Jannik is going to add some points at these tournaments where he doesn’t have to defend any points.
“I will try to play my best and let’s see what happens, but for me the No 1 spot is not in my mind right now. I’m just trying to feel the best way on clay courts and let’s see how the clay swing goes.”
Read next: What is Carlos Alcaraz’s injury? The inflamed wrist that could keep him out of Roland Garros
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