Amid a tennis world still reeling from Jannik Sinner’s three-month ban, Carlos Alcaraz will face a former Grand Slam champion in the first round of the Qatar Open, with Novak Djokovic facing a Wimbledon finalist in his opener.
The ATP Tour 500 event in Doha was set to be a stacked event, with six of the world’s top 10 being present in the draw. As such, Sinner would sit at the top of the draw as the first seed, as he looked to add yet another title to his collection.
However, before the draw was made, it was announced that the Italian and the World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA) had arrived at a settlement over their ongoing ‘doping’ dispute. This agreement stated that Sinner would accept that his team displayed negligence over his two failed doping tests in March, in exchange for a three-month ban from professional tennis.
The negotiated ban is substantially shorter than any punishment he would have received had WADA’s appeal to the Court of Arbitration for Sport been successful – with a one or two-year ban almost certain.
As such, despite already having his first practice in Doha, Sinner was ineligible to participate in the tournament.
Carlos Alcaraz
The pre-draw withdrawal meant that Alcaraz was bumped up to the first seed position, however, despite this privilege, his path looks to be a difficult one.
In the opening match, he will face 2014 US Open champion Marin Cilic – who is currently struggling for wins but is almost always dangerous on quicker courts. Not many know this better than the Spaniard, who went to a fifth-set with the Croat en route to his first Grand Slam title in 2022.
Should Alcaraz progress, he is projected to face Zhizhen Zhang who recently defeated Hubert Hurkacz in Marseille, with Grigor Dimitrov looming in the final eight. The Bulgarian may be trailing the head-to-head with the four-time Grand Slam champion, but Dimitrov has come out on top of their last two matches and won their last four sets played.
To make matters worse, Alcaraz’s projected semi-final is with Novak Djokovic – who defeated him at the 2025 Australian Open.
Novak Djokovic
The Serbian may be projected to face Alcaraz in the Qatar Open semi-finals, but he will not be looking past his first-round opponent.
In a rematch of the 2021 Wimbledon final, Djokovic will face Matteo Berrettini in his opening match. The Italian has been unable to recapture the form he had that year, following multiple injuries, but has had impressive wins over the likes of Cameron Norrie and Frances Tiafoe, as well as a clay title in Kitzbuhel.
The potential ‘banana skins’ continue in the next round, where the 24-time Grand Slam champion would face either the big-serving Jan-Lennard Struff or the ever-tricky Tallon Griekspoor. The Dutchman would be favoured to face Djokovic, having won both matches against the German, and having had more high-quality wins recently.
In the quarter-finals, Djokovic would be likely to face Jack Draper or Alexei Popyrin. The Brit has only met the Serbian superstar once, where he took the first set of their match at SW19 and looked in supreme form in Melbourne at the start of 2025.
However, Popyrin cannot – and should not – be counted out, despite not having won a match this season. If he could capture a similar form to what he possessed against Djokovic in their third-round match at the 2024 US Open – where he completed the upset – then a semi-final appearance in the last four is far from guaranteed.
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Alex de Minaur
As a result of Sinner’s withdrawal, De Minaur was bumped up to the second seed position. The world No 6 looked in top form in Rotterdam, and will look to continue that level in the outdoor conditions of Doha.
The Australian has a relatively soft draw early on, facing Roman Safiullin in his opener, before facing off against either a qualifier or wildcard Abdullah Shelbayh.
In the quarter-finals, Andrey Rublev and Alexander Bublik lie in waiting. The Russian has had plenty of success at the Qatar Open, reaching the final in 2018 and lifting the trophy in 2020. Rublev and de Minaur have shared a very competitive rivalry, with the latter leading the head-to-head with four wins compared to the three of Rublev.
The Australian would likely rather play Bublik in the last eight, having never lost to the Kazach, however, Bublik did win his last match against Rublev, so their respective match would be a toss-up.
Daniil Medvedev is projected to fill the other semi-final spot opposite de Minaur, with Stefanos Tsitsipas another option.
Daniil Medvedev
Medvedev looked out-of-sorts for much of 2024 and didn’t look much better during his loss against Learner Tien at the 2025 Australian Open.
The Russian will face off against his fellow countryman and childhood friend Karen Khachanov in the first round, with Medvedev leading the head-to-head 5-2. However, given his recent level, the former Grand Slam champion will not take Khachanov lightly.
In the round of 16, Medvedev is projected to face Zizou Bergs or, more likely, Roberto Bautista Agut. The Spaniard has great memories in Doha, having beaten Djokovic from a set-and-a-break down in 2019, lifting the trophy in 2022. On the other hand, Bautista Agut is on a five-match losing streak and hasn’t clinched a win since October 2024.
Should he reach the quarter-finals, Medvedev likely faces the tricky challenge of sixth seed Stefanos Tsitsipas or the in-form Felix Auger-Aliassime. The Canadian has already won two titles this season, and won his last meeting 6-3, 7-6(5) against the Russian at Paris-Bercy in 2024. Medvedev has a rocky and intense rivalry against Tsitsipas, with the Greek similarly out of form, and having lost his last three matches in their head-to-head, with two of them being on a hard court.
The Qatar Open will take place from February 17th until February 22nd.
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