Jessica Pegula banished her Miami Open demons with a gutsy semi-final win over tournament breakout star Alex Eala on Thursday.
After previous semi-final defeats in 2022 and 2023, and a quarter-final loss twelve months ago, a 7-6(3), 5-7, 6-3 victory over teen sensation Eala powered the American into a first final at the tournament.
It is a third final of 2025 for Pegula, and the US star will lift her eighth career title – and fourth WTA 1000 title – should she beat world No 1 Aryna Sabalenka on Saturday.
However, it is not just the title at stake for Pegula.
The 31-year-old has been handed a golden opportunity to replace Coco Gauff as the US No 1.
Points surge
The US has an incredibly strong presence towards the top of the WTA Tour, with Gauff, Pegula, and Madison Keys ranked world No 3, No 4, and No 5, respectively.
Gauff and Pegula have been established figures inside the top 10 for numerous seasons now, with Keys surging to a new career-high of world No 5 after a stunning Australian Open triumph in January.
Heading into the Miami Open, Gauff held 6,063 ranking points, with world No 4 Pegula on 5,361 points and Keys just behind on 5,004 points.
However, things have fallen into place perfectly for Pegula in Miami.
The world No 4 has, for now, moved up to 5,796 points in the WTA Live Rankings, earning an extra 435 ranking points after bettering last year’s quarter-final exit with her run to the final this fortnight.
That has helped increase her lead over world No 5 Keys significantly, with the Australian Open champion falling to 4,949 points after a shock round-three exit to Eala; she had reached round four in 2024.
And, Pegula now has Gauff’s world No 3 – and US No 1 – ranking in her sights.
Gauff fell in the fourth round of the Miami Open for the second straight year, meaning she stays on 6,063 points, having dropped 270 points in Indian Wells a fortnight ago.
Pegula has closed the gap significantly over the past month and, if she were to win Saturday’s final, would move above her compatriot in the rankings.
Victory over Sabalenka would mean Pegula holds 6,146 ranking points come Monday – moving back to her career-high of world No 3, and knocking Gauff back down to No 4.
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Pegula’s challenge
The equation for Pegula is a simple one, but beating Sabalenka is not going to be a straightforward task.
World No 1 Sabalenka has now won more matches than anyone else on the WTA Tour this year and is already in a fourth final of 2025.
Though she was beaten in both the Australian Open and Indian Wells finals, she was the Brisbane International champion back in January, and is perhaps the favourite to lift a first Miami Open title.
That is part due to her form and position as the world No 1, though Sabalenka also has a strong head-to-head record against Pegula.
The Belarusian leads their head-to-head 6-2, and has won their last two meetings.
Those matches were a 6-3, 7-5 victory in the Cincinnati Open final last August, and then a 7-5, 7-5 win in an enthralling US Open final just weeks later.
Both those contests were close matches, but Sabalenka appears to have another level compared to most of the WTA field when it comes to hard-court tennis, and it will be tricky for Pegula to counteract that.
Should Pegula win the final, she could then also lose the US No 1 ranking after just one week.
There would be just 83 points between her and Gauff in the rankings, while she has 195 semi-final points to defend next week at the Charleston Open.
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The post Jessica Pegula handed huge rankings chance ahead of Aryna Sabalenka Miami Open showdown appeared first on Tennis365.
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