The ATP 500 in Rio is filled with intriguing storylines, from Alexander Zverev’s attempt to get closer to Jannik Sinner’s world No 1 status to Joao Fonseca’s rapid rise in form.
Last year, it was an all-Argentinian singles final with Sebastian Baez dominating Mariano Navone 6-2, 6-1 to lift the biggest title of his career.
Past winners include Rafael Nadal, Dominic Thiem, and Carlos Alcaraz.
Alexander Zverev
The German is currently 3695 points behind world No 1 Jannik Sinner, but has a doable path to the top spot. Sinner accepted a 3-month ban in a settlement with the World Anti-Doping Agency for failing two doping tests in March 2024, meaning he cannot compete professionally until the Rome Masters in May – a prime chance for Zverev.
The two-time Grand Slam finalist reached the championship match at the 2025 Australian Open, losing in straight-sets against the Italian, before losing from a set-and-a-break up against Francisco Cerundolo in Buenos Aires.
In the first round of Rio, the world No 2 will face Yunchaokete Bu. The 23-year-old has won three matches in 2025, reaching the quarter-finals in Montpellier. However, Bu has not played a match on clay on the professional tour, having only previously done so in qualification rounds and challenger events.
Moving on to the second round, Zverev would face wildcard Felipe Meligeni Alves or, more likely, Alexander Shevchenko. The Kazakh may not have much clay court pedigree, but has a win over Jiri Lehecka on the surface, and, outside of the clay, possesses wins over Holger Rune and Taylor Fritz – showing he can compete with the world’s best.
In the last eight, Zverev is projected to face Nicolas Jarry. The Chilean performs best on the clay, most prominently reaching the Rome Masters final in 2024 after beating the likes of Stefanos Tsitsipas and Tommy Paul – also victorious against Carlos Alcaraz in Buenos Aires that same season.
Unfortunately for Jarry, it was the German who he faced in the Rome final, losing 6-4, 7-5, and extending the head-to-head deficit to 5-2 in Zverev’s favour. However, given Zverev’s uncertain form, mixed with the Chilean’s clay court prowess, this hypothetical quarter-final could be a must-watch.
In the semi-finals, Zverev would have his work cut out for him, protected to come up against either Francisco Cerundolo, who slayed the German in the week prior to Rio, or Tomas Martin Etcheverry. However, as if these clay court specialists weren’t enough, the in-form Joao Fonseca is also a potential opponent for the world No 2 in the final four.
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Lorenzo Musetti
Second seed Musetti is seeking his first title since 2022, despite having a career-best year in 2024 – where he made the final of Queen’s and Umag, as well as capturing a bronze medal at the Paris Olympics and reaching the last four of Wimbledon.
In 2025, the Italian lost a tight third-round match against Ben Shelton at the Australian Open before withdrawing from his match in Buenos Aires against Pedro Martinez, due to a calf injury.
Musetti took to X after the withdrawal, stating: “Last night, during my match against [Corentin] Moutet in the second set, I felt some discomfort in my calf but I managed to finish the match,” going on to say “This morning, the pain was still there, and after some tests, I was diagnosed with a soleus injury. In the coming days, I will meet with my team to assess the situation and whether I will be able to play in Rio.”
The world No 16 has only played one match in Rio, having lost to Nicolas Jarry in 2023.
If the Italian does play in Rio, he will play a qualifier in his opening match, before facing Jaume Munar or Thiago Seyboth Wild – two grinders who love playing on the red dust surface – in the last 16.
Looking ahead to a hypothetical quarter-final, Musetti is projected to face Martinez – the same opponent who he withdrew against in Buenos Aires – before playing either Sebastian Baez or Alejandro Tabilo in the semi-finals. The world No 16 has a 1-1 head-to-head with Baez, having never faced the Chilean on the professional tour.
If the Italian is fit enough, the draw may just allow him to go deep in the tournament and contend for the title.
Joao Fonseca
The 18-year-old Brazilian became the youngest South American ATP Finalist since 2001, after reaching the final in Buenos Aires.
Fonseca has already shown his impressive form this season, with a straight-sets win over Andrey Rublev at the Australian Open, and a comeback from 5-3 down in the deciding set against Mariano Navone.
In Rio, the young superstar will open against Alexandre Muller, before facing either Tomas Martin Etcheverry or Corentin Moutet in the last 16. A rematch of the Buenos Aires final against Francisco Cerundolo looms in the quarter-finals, with Hugo Gaston and Luciano Darderi other options.
From there, should he make the last four, Fonseca would likely face his toughest task of his young career – facing Zverev, who, by ranking, is by far the best player he would have played against.
The ATP 500 in Rio will take place from February 17th – February 23rd 2025.
The post 2025 ATP Rio draw: Alexander Zverev and Lorenzo Musetti lead the way, Joao Fonseca features appeared first on Tennis365.
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