Aryna Sabalenka has been named as the “pretty firm favourite” to claim a first French Open title following her victorious Madrid Open campaign.
World No 1 Sabalenka dropped just one set across six matches to win a record-equalling third title in Madrid, dispatching fourth seed Coco Gauff 6-3, 7-6(3) in the final.
It was a sixth final of 2025 for the Belarusian and a second in two clay events, having finished as the runner-up at the Women’s Stuttgart Open two weeks ago.
Sabalenka has never won a clay-court title outside of her three Madrid Open triumphs, and that is in part due to Iga Swiatek’s dominance on the dirt.
The Pole has won a total of 10 titles on clay, including four French Open titles in the space of five years.
Swiatek became just the third woman in the Open Era to win three straight Roland Garros titles in 2024 and, should she triumph in 2025, would become the first to win the event four years in a row.
WTA Tour News
Aryna Sabalenka’s Madrid Open prize money revealed as she plots a birthday party plan
WTA Rankings Race To Riyadh: Aryna Sabalenka pulls away from rivals, Coco Gauff in the running again
However, the 23-year-old has not reached a final since beating Jasmine Paolini on Court Philippe Chatrier a year ago, and has struggled with consistency at the latter stages of events in 2025.
That was highlighted by a stunning Madrid semi-final loss to Gauff, with the Pole winning just two games in an emphatic 64-minute defeat.
And, with Sabalenka sealing her third title of 2025, Swiatek’s chances of Roland Garros success have been questioned.
Speaking on Sky Sports Tennis, pundit and former doubles star Colin Fleming has named Sabalenka as the leading contender to win the second major of the season.
He said: “I think she [Sabalenka] is now pretty firm favourite for Roland Garros, with all that has gone on as we stand here in Madrid
“Before this tournament started, I would still have picked Swiatek as the favourite, despite the fact she was out of form.
“I would have said I think she will find something in Madrid and Rome, and by the time Roland Garros comes around [she’ll be back in form].
“But although Iga made the semis and you would say it’s not a terrible result, the manner of the semi-final, I just think there is a question mark of how she will be in Rome and Roland Garros.”
Sabalenka has lifted three Grand Slam titles, triumphing at the Australian Open in 2023 and 2024, and the US Open last season.
The Belarusian has reached a further two Grand Slam finals, losing the 2023 US Open and 2025 Australian Open finals, though she has never reached a major final on a natural surface.
Her best French Open result came back in 2023 when she held a match point in her semi-final against the unseeded Karolina Muchova, only to fall in three sets.
Twelve months ago, Sabalenka’s campaign was disrupted by food poisoning as she suffered a shock quarter-final exit to Mirra Andreeva.
Both Sabalenka and Swiatek will be next be in action at the Italian Open, twelve months on from the two contesting the final in Rome.
Swiatek eased to a 6-2, 6-3 victory in that final and is a three-time champion in Rome, though she is under significant rankings pressure, with 1,000 points to defend.
The pair will be the top two seeds and will learn their fate when the women’s singles draw is revealed on Monday.
The post Aryna Sabalenka named as ‘firm favourite’ for French Open ahead of Iga Swiatek appeared first on Tennis365.
Leave a Reply