After a stunning exit at the Madrid Open, Iga Swiatek will look to right the ship in Rome.
The manner of Swiatek’s 6-1, 6-1 loss to Coco Gauff shocked many, with the world No 2 suffering one of the worst losses of her career to an opponent she had never previously lost to on clay.
The Pole ultimately failed to defend her title in the Spanish capital but will hope for better fortune at the Italian Open, where she is looking to defend her title, and win the event for a fourth time overall.
However, she is under significant rankings pressure heading into action at the WTA 1000 event, with both Gauff and Jessica Pegula closing in.
As it stands
As of Monday (May 5), Swiatek held on to her world No 2 ranking but dropped to 6,773 points after her Madrid Open semi-final exit, failing to defend her title – and 1,000 points – from 2024.
Having made her first Madrid Open final, Gauff moved back up to world No 3 on 6,603 points; she would have overtaken the Pole had she won the title in the Spanish capital.
Falling behind Gauff in the WTA Rankings was Pegula, who dropped one place to world No 4 despite increasing her points tally to 6,243.
However, despite being the world No 4 in the WTA Rankings, it is Pegula who is currently world No 2 in the WTA Live Rankings.
With no points to defend in the Eternal City, the 31-year-old is currently up to second in the provisional rankings due to Swiatek and Gauff’s projected loss of points.
Gauff is currently dropping 390 points after her semi-final run in 2024, with 6,213 points on her live ranking – though she remains as the world No 3 as things stand.
However, with 990 points dropping off her ranking as the defending Rome champion, Swiatek is currently down to 5,783 points – and to world No 4.
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What does Swiatek need to stay as the world No 2?
Remaining as the world No 2 could be crucial for Swiatek’s hopes of success at the French Open, which starts later this month, though she must significantly better Gauff and Pegula’s result in Rome.
With Pegula on 6,243 live points and Gauff on 6,213 live points, the Pole must reach at least the final to have any chance of staying as the world No 2.
A runner-up finish would leave Swiatek on 6,423 points once the event is complete, while a run to the title would see her stay on her official pre-tournament total of 6,773 points.
However, if she were to lose in the semi-final, she would earn only 390 points in Rome and hold 6,163 points once the event is complete, behind what both Pegula and Gauff have already secured without hitting a ball.
If Gauff was to reach the semi-final and defend her 390 points from last year, Swiatek would need the American to lose in the last four and ultimately defend her title to stay in front.
Gauff and Swiatek are on opposite sides of the draw and, should they meet in the final, the American would be guaranteed to overtake the Pole regardless of the result.
The American will hold 7,203 points with a run to the title and 6,853 points with a runner-up finish, both ahead of Swiatek’s maximum achievable total of 6,773 with the title.
Pegula is on the same side of the draw as Swiatek, and the two are projected to meet in the semi-final.
Due to the WTA Rankings system, she can achieve a maximum of 7,135 points if she were to win the title, below Gauff’s tally – despite being ahead in the WTA Live Rankings.
To stay ahead of Pegula and remain as the US No 1, Gauff must beat Pegula’s result by at least one round.
If they were to meet in the final, whoever lifted the title would end the tournament as the world No 2, with the runner-up as the world No 3.
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