At two sets up and with three Championship points on his side in the French Open final, Jannik Sinner could be forgiven for thinking he had finally overcome his Carlos Alcaraz hurdle.
Separated by just a couple of years in age, the pair have come up through the tennis scene together but in their early encounters, it was Sinner who had the edge.
Their first meeting came at the 2021 Paris Masters, and although Alcaraz may have been victorious, he needed two tiebreaks to defeat his Italian counterpart.
But that opening victory proved to be an exception rather than the rule as Sinner went on to win four out of the next six, defeating Alcaraz on grass, clay and hard courts. A duo of wins for the Spaniard in the US came sandwiched between a dominant run for Sinner which saw him emerge as the next best contender for supremacy in tennis.
But since 2024, there has been a swift reversal of that dominance. In their last five matches, Alcaraz has won them all. Their last three meetings have all come in finals, the two before that were semis. Alcaraz has won on both hard and clay courts. In four of those five matches, the Spaniard has come from one set down to win.
Whether that fact was in the mind of Sinner as he watched three Championship points become two then one then zero in Paris, only he will know but the nature of the all-time classic final has undoubtedly given Alcaraz a mental edge in a rivalry that many believe will dominate tennis for the next era.
While the likes of Novak Djokovic can never be fully ruled out, there is a general acceptance that Sinner and Alcaraz are the best the men’s side of the game currently has to offer and as such, the winner of the Slams for years to come is for them to decide.
Since 2022, the pair have spent 73 weeks at the top of the rankings and look unlikely to relinquish that anytime soon. But even if these two are considered the best, a truly great rivalry can only be that if wins are traded.
Alcaraz’s recent form means this particular rivalry is threatening to become not much of one at all. In Sinner’s three Slam wins, he has never defeated Alcaraz on the way to the trophy.
Meanwhile, in three of Alcaraz’s five wins, he has knocked Sinner out on the way. Whether mental or purely physical, Alcaraz has unquestionably become a roadblock for Sinner.
This run of dominance is not unique in tennis history. John McEnroe defeated Jimmy Connors 11 times in a row. Novak Djokovic reached seven consecutive victories over Rafa Nadal on two occasions. Nadal beat the Serb and Roger Federer five times, doing so to the Swiss on three occasions. But the crucial aspect is that the losing side always fought back.
At 23, it is too early to declare Sinner an almost-man but he must start to reverse the trend quickly if this rivalry is to last the test of time.
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After their showdown on the clay of Roland Garros, the grass court season will be the next battleground for the pair. To begin with, they will get some warm-up matches in differing tournaments with Sinner participating in the Halle Open while Alcaraz heads for Queen’s but Wimbledon at the end of this month poses a tantalising prospect already.
Grass has at least been kind to Sinner in this match-up with him winning their only meeting on the surface in 2022 but you get a sense it is now or never for the 23-year-old who is enduring the toughest year of his career to date.
An Australian Open win has been a bright spark in a year of controversy and time spent on the sideline. The French Open final defeat was one that could cripple even the best young talents but if Alcaraz is the embodiment of fiery passion, Sinner must access the cold killer aspect of his personality.
Despite what will happen, Sinner will retain his No. 1 status after the Championships but if it is Alcaraz who emerges victorious, everyone will know who tennis’ true force is.
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