Main draw action at the 2025 Cincinnati Open begins on Thursday August 7, but who will lift the men’s singles title at the ATP Masters 1000 tournament?
This year’s Cincinnati Open will be the first edition of the event to be played across 12 days and feature 96 players in the singles draw. In previous years, the draw contained 56 players and the tournament lasted a week.
Jack Draper, Novak Djokovic, Francisco Cerdundolo, Grigor Dimitrov and Alexander Bublik have all withdrawn from the event.
Here, we make our Cincinnati Masters men’s predictions.
First quarter
Projected QF: (1) Jannik Sinner vs (8) Lorenzo Musetti
Jannik Sinner has been given a favourable draw on his return to action after winning his maiden Wimbledon title last month. The world No 1, who is the reigning champion in Cincinnati, will begin his campaign against Vit Kopriva or a qualifier.
The four-time major winner could then face 30th seed Gabriel Diallo in the third round before a possible last 16 clash with either 13th seed Tommy Paul or 19th seed Tomas Machac — who have been short of fitness and form respectively.
Like at Wimbledon, Lorenzo Musetti is the highest seed Sinner could face in the quarter-finals. The Italian has struggled with a 1-3 record at his three events since retiring with an injury in the French Open semi-finals.
With No 13 seed Casper Ruud and 25th seed Stefanos Tsitsipas also in this section, 23rd seed Felix Auger-Aliassime could come through.
Auger-Aliassime tends to play his best tennis on quick courts and is a two-time quarter-finalist in Cincinnati, while he has a 4-3 record against projected third round opponent Ruud.
Quarter-final prediction: Sinner d. Auger-Aliassime
Second quarter
Projected QF: Taylor Fritz (4) vs Holger Rune (7)
Taylor Fritz has built on his excellent grass-court season with strong runs in Washington and Toronto — where he will play Ben Shelton in the semi-finals.
While fatigue is a concern, a busy schedule is standard for Fritz — who has proven he can perform consistently on his best surfaces.
The American’s first three matches could see him face 2022 Cincinnati winner Borna Coric, 31st seed Lorenzo Sonego and either 15th seed Flavio Cobolli or 17th seed Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the last 16.
Holger Rune (7), Frances Tiafoe (10), Ugo Humbert (20) and Alex Michelsen (28) are the seeds Fritz could play in the quarter-finals. Tiafoe was a Cincinnati runner-up in 2024 and often brings his best at big events on home soil.
Quarter-final prediction: Fritz d. Tiafoe
ATP Tour News
Jannik Sinner told to ‘watch his back’ for Carlos Alcaraz in ATP Rankings battle
Canadian Open ATP Rankings Winners & Losers: Zverev, Fritz, Shelton consolidate, Khachanov +3
Third quarter
Projected QF: Alexander Zverev (3) vs Ben Shelton (5)
Alexander Zverev has regained some confidence at the Canadian Open after a training block with Toni Nadal in Mallorca.
It will be a challenge for Zverev in Cincinnati after going deep in Toronto, and he could face some tough tests, with Gael Monfils a possible first opponent and 27th seed Brandon Nakashima in the third round. Karen Khachanov (14) and Arthur Fils (18) could both await the German in the last 16.
Ben Shelton is projected to meet Zverev in the last eight, and he has also made the semi-finals in Canada.
A potential third round showdown between 12th seed Daniil Medvedev and 22nd seed Jiri Lehecka could determine Shelton’s fourth round opponent.
Medvedev has been unconvincing of late but tends to enjoy the North American hard-court season, and he could profit against some tired opponents if he survives the dangerous Lehecka.
Quarter-final prediction: Zverev d. Medvedev
Fourth quarter
Projected QF: Carlos Alcaraz (2) vs Alex de Minaur (6)
Carlos Alcaraz will start against Damir Dzumhur or Mattia Bellucci and could meet 26th seed Tallon Griekspoor in the third round.
Jakub Mensik (16) and Denis Shapovalov (24) are potential fourth round rivals for the Spaniard in his first event since Wimbledon.
Alex de Minaur (6), Andrey Rublev (9), Alexei Popyrin (21) and Luciano Darderi (29) are the four seeds who Alcaraz could meet in the last eight.
De Minaur, who triumphed in Washington and made the quarter-finals in Toronto, is the most in-form and reliable of this group, although he may have to battle fatigue after a taxing couple of weeks.
Quarter-final prediction: Alcaraz d. de Minaur
Semi-final and Final Predictions
This could be the fourth straight tournament where Sinner and Alcaraz face off in the final after clashes in Rome, the French Open and Wimbledon (not including Canada, where neither competed).
The duo have separated themselves from the chasing pack, and they will be fresher than their rivals having not competed since Wimbledon.
Semi-finals:
Sinner d. Fritz in 2
Alcaraz d. Zverev in 3
Sinner’s comfort on fast hard courts and clearer-looking path could give him the edge over Alcaraz at an event he won a year ago. The fact the Italian ended a five-match losing streak against Alcaraz at Wimbledon could also be significant mentally.
Final:
Sinner d. Alcaraz in 3
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The post Who will win the Cincinnati Open? Our men’s predictions, ft. Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz appeared first on Tennis365.
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