Who will win the US Open? Our men’s predictions, ft. Jannik Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz, Novak Djokovic

Main draw action at the 2025 US Open begins on Sunday August 24, but who will lift the men’s singles title at the year’s final Grand Slam?

Arthur Fils, Grigor Dimitrov, Matteo Berrettini, Hubert Hurkacz, Kei Nishikori and Nick Kyrgios have all withdrawn from the event.

Here, we make our US Open predictions for what looks to be a balanced men’s singles draw.

First quarter

Projected QF: Jannik Sinner (1) vs Jack Draper (5)

In the Cincinnati Open final, Jannik Sinner was forced to retire due to illness when trailing Carlos Alcaraz 0-5 in the first set.

Despite this setback, the world No 1 is the favourite at Flushing Meadows as he looks to defend his title and secure a fifth major.

It is hard to see the Italian being troubled en route to the quarter-finals: 1R – Vit Kopriva, 2R – Alexei Popyrin, 3R – Denis Shapovalov (27), 4R – Tommy Paul (14) or Alexander Bublik (23).

Jack Draper was a US Open semi-finalist last year, but he has not played a singles match since Wimbledon due to an arm injury.

The Brit is projected to meet Sinner in the last eight, and his draw gives him a good opportunity to hold his seeding: 1R – Qualifier/Lucky Loser, 2R – Zizou Bergs, 3R – Gabriel Diallo, 4R – Lorenzo Musetti (10) or Flavio Cobolli (24).

Quarter-final prediction: Sinner d. Draper 

Second quarter

Projected QF: Alexander Zverev (3) vs Alex de Minaur (8)

Alexander Zverev bounced back from his painful opening round Wimbledon loss with back-to-back semi-finals in Toronto and Cincinnati after a training block with Toni Nadal in Mallorca.

Given his return to form, three-time major finalist Zverev should be too strong in this section: 1R – Alejandro Tabilo, 2R – Roberto Bautista Agut/Jacob Fearnley, 3R – Felix Auger-Aliassime (25), 4R – Andrey Rublev (15).

No 8 seed Alex de Minaur and No 9 seed Karen Khachanov are projected for a fourth round clash, with the winner potentially facing Zverev.

De Minaur has made the US Open quarters twice, but he has not beaten a top 10 player this year. Khachanov is a two-time semi-finalist at hard-court majors and was a runner-up in Toronto earlier this month.

The Russian’s form and Grand Slam pedigree may give him the edge if he can get past Nishesh Basavareddy (1R), Kamil Majchrzak (2R) and 19th seed Francisco Cerundolo (3R).

Quarter-final prediction: Zverev d. Khachanov 

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Third quarter

Projected QF: Taylor Fritz (4) vs Novak Djokovic (7)

Novak Djokovic, who is aiming to become the oldest Grand Slam singles titlist in history, has not played singles since his Wimbledon semi-final loss to Sinner.

The 24-time major winner’s route to the quarter-finals looks challenging: 1R – Learner Tien, 2R – Qualifier/Lucky Loser, 3R – Alex Michelsen (28), 4R – Holger Rune (11) or Frances Tiafoe (17).

The 38-year-old’s projected last eight opponent is 2024 US Open runner-up Taylor Fritz. Fritz is surely the most favourable top four seed Djokovic could have had in his quarter given the Serb’s 10-0 head-to-head record against the American.

Fritz, who was a Wimbledon semi-finalist last month, has a manageable early route: 1R – Emilio Nava, 2R – Sebastian Baez, 3R – Brandon Nakashima (30), 4R – Jakub Mensik (16) or Tomas Machac (21).

Quarter-final prediction: Djokovic d. Fritz 

Fourth quarter

Projected QF: Carlos Alcaraz (2) vs Ben Shelton (6)

Carlos Alcaraz arrives for his bid to win a second US Open title and sixth major after collecting the Cincinnati Masters crown.

The Spaniard faces an uncomfortable opener against huge-serving Reilly Opelka, but his path gets smoother thereafter: 2R – Mattia Bellucci, 3R – Luciano Darderi (32), 4R – Daniil Medvedev (13) or Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (18).

Ben Shelton has often brought his best tennis at Grand Slams, but he recently won the biggest title of his career to date at the Masters 1000 in Toronto.

The American, who made the last four at Flushing Meadows in 2023, has a great chance to set up a blockbuster last eight showdown with Alcaraz. His potential path is: 1R – Qualifier/Lucky Loser, 2R – Pablo Carreno Busta, 3R – Tallon Griekspoor (29), 4R – Casper Ruud (12) or Jiri Lehecka (20).

Quarter-final prediction: Alcaraz d. Shelton 

Semi-final and Final Predictions

Semi-finals:

This could be the fifth straight tournament where Sinner and Alcaraz meet in the final after clashes in Rome, the French Open, Wimbledon and Cincinnati (neither competed in Toronto).

It is hard to look beyond a third straight Grand Slam final showdown after the duo reinforced their supremacy on their return to action in Cincinnati.

Semi-final predictions:

Sinner d. Zverev in 3

Alcaraz d. Djokovic in 4 

Final: 

Sinner has won three of the last four Grand Slams, while he had three championship points before losing against Alcaraz in the staggering five-set French Open final in June.

Since the start of 2024, the Italian has dominated on hard courts, winning all three majors, the ATP Finals and three Masters titles. That makes it very difficult to go against him here.

Final prediction:

Sinner d. Alcaraz in 5 

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The post Who will win the US Open? Our men’s predictions, ft. Jannik Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz, Novak Djokovic appeared first on Tennis365.