Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz are the favourites to meet for the third straight Grand Slam final at the 2025 US Open, and the world No 1 ranking will be on the line if the pair do face off.
In the last four at Flushing Meadows, Sinner will take on world No 27 Felix-Auger Aliassime, while Alcaraz will play seventh seed and 24-time Grand Slam champion Novak Djokovic.
Sinner has been the ATP world No 1 for 65 consecutive weeks since overtaking Djokovic to ascend to top spot for the first time in June 2024 — following last year’s French Open.
Alcaraz became the youngest world No 1 in ATP history after winning his maiden Grand Slam title at the 2022 US Open at the age of 19 years and four months.
The 22-year-old has spent 36 weeks of his career to date as the world’s highest-ranked player, with his most recent spell on top ending in September 2023.
In the last event before the US Open, Alcaraz won the Cincinnati Masters after Sinner was forced to retire due to illness in the first set of the pair’s meeting in the final.
Alcaraz, who is the world No 2, started the US Open on 9,590 points — 1,890 points behind Sinner, who had 11,480.
While this was a sizeable gap, Sinner and Alcaraz’s respective performances at the 2024 US Open created the opportunity for there to be a change at the top of the rankings after this year’s event.
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This is because Sinner is defending 2,000 points as the reigning champion, while Alcaraz is defending just 50 points after a shock second round loss to Botic van de Zandschulp last year.
As things stand before the semi-finals, Alcaraz has increased his points total by 750 to 10,340 points, which has seen him take the No 1 spot from Sinner in the Live ATP Rankings.
Sinner, who is 1,200 points down from his pre-tournament tally, is just 60 points behind Alcaraz on 10,280 points in the live standings.
Therefore, if Sinner were to lose to Auger-Aliassime in the semi-finals, Alcaraz would become world No 1 irrespective of whether he progresses any further.
If Alcaraz were to fall to Djokovic, Sinner could guarantee that he would remain in top spot by reaching the final.
If both Sinner and Alcaraz reach the final, the latter would still hold a 60-point edge, which means the winner would take both the US Open trophy and the world No 1 ranking.
Jannik Sinner US Open points permutations
Wins the title – 11,480 points
Loses in the final – 10,780 points
Loses in the semi-finals – 10,280 points
Carlos Alcaraz US Open points permutations
Wins the title – 11,540 points
Loses in the final – 10,840 points
Loses in the semi-finals – 10,340 points
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